They are defending champions you know …

Well , i got almost all my predictions wrong yesterday (and i say almost only ‘cos the KKR v MI match is not yet done and i could end up being fully wrong).
Chennai beat Punjab in a masterclass by Dhoni – but it really could have gone either way. Guess that ends Irfan’s comeback hopes as the India skipper will not have much faith. Perhaps he and Yusuf (who is now on thin ice i think if he flops a couple more times) can practice in their backyard to get back into form. In any case it was close and Punjab batted well so i don’t feel so bad about the prediction.
However, i was very sure that DD will come together to beat Deccan easily – with the top order firing hard. Well that wasn’t to be as they all crumbled. In fact, Nehra played the scoop shot (of sorts) better than Dilshan (who is the leading contender for the worst performer of IPL 3) has in the whole tournament. And as i mentioned to Aloke earlier in the day, perhaps Gambhir should have given Sehwag this advice – “pretend it’s a Test match”
Well in any case Deccan it is. Despite Gilchrist not performing (maybe a singled handed win in one of the next 2 games is on the cards ?) the team really brought it home. The low total was something that Delhi should really have got but then as Symonds said in the break  - ‘ well its not a high score but we have the runs on the board and they still need to get them”. The unfathomable decision to not play Vaas in the last few games was brought to the fore with his super performance today (he still has the best economy rate in the team) and Rohit Sharma took some stunning catches. But really the three musketeers of Symonds , Suman and Sharma with a more than able D’Artagnan in Ojha have been key to their revival. With Vaas back, Harmeet delivering in crunch moments and the skipper due for a score they might just go all the way. Its a reasonable mix of experience and youth as Aneesh Vijaykar pointed out and boast the best bowler of the tournament (and 3 others with a average of less than 7.5) and a batting line up that is sharing the load equally. Somehow i just didn’t believe the old legs had it in them (and perhaps still dont) – then again, maybe i shouldn’t have been so skeptical.

They are after all the defending champs.

ps: Interesting data.
KKR vs Mumbai. A bit of a ‘who cares’ . A rudimentary excel table revealed that KKR breaks even at about 150 runs. ie i think if they score 150 runs they need needs to win by about 150 runs. If they score less than 150 it doesn’t matter. If they are chasing a score of about 150 they need to win by about 17 overs. I may be off by a few overs or runs but you get the idea – should be a fun match.

May the best team win IPL 2010 - really?

So a quick post to check whether the best team will win the IPL 2010.
If you look at the points table it's very likely that the 4 semi finalists will have the following score.
1. Mumbai Indians - 20 or 22 points
2. Royal Challengers - 14 points
3. Delhi (or Deccan) - 16 points

4. Delhi, Chennai, Deccan or KKR - 14 points.

So given this , even if MI doesn't win a single game hereonin they will end the tournament with 20/22 points. Which means that if some other team wins the IPL 2010 , they will be at best having '20 points' or possibly even 18. If Deccan or Delhi win, they would have less overall points and would have lost  to the Mumbai Indians twice in the league . (at least Chennai and Blore have beaten them once each).

So if Mumbai beat KKR in the last league, reach the semis where they face say Deccan or Delhi - its possible they will lose to a team that will have a total of  18 points vs 24 for Mumbai and a team that they have beaten 2/3 times in the tournament.

So does the best team really win or is it just about all on that day. Now you could argue that this is an age old debate on format and is the same for example in the ODI world cup etc . However the extensiveness of this tournament with 14 games in the league stage and each team playing every other team twice may mean that the IPL look at it differently from the ODI tournament (like some of the football leagues). However that is less exciting so maybe at least a best of 3 final instead of the sudden death. Kill the 3rd place match if needed and have the 3rd place be decided on points if time is a constraint.

I know we discussed this last year as well wrt whether the IPL format needs change  but i do feel it will be a shame when Mumbai loses while having the best tournament by far. This will become even harder next year with 10 teams . Then again , maybe its like life - timing is everything and peaking too soon doesn't work (always do your best work in the quarter when your appraisal is due).

Any change in views now that we have 3 years of history?

KKR - semi finals or done?

So a lot of debate around the scoring rate today after KKR perhaps took a little longer than they should have to win and ended at a NRR of

-0.456. The commentators also alluded to BRC’s losing by a big margin and how that may have been beneficial for KKR. So what’s going on and

what do KKR (and the rest) need  to do? Did slow scoring really matter? Here’s a few facts and scenarios

1. First, the result of the Mumbai Bangalore match has no bearing whatsoever on KKR. Simply put, KKR cannot hope to make up the NRR gap vs BRC (they’d need to win against Mumbai by something like 90+ runs). They need to focus on results of Chennai , Delhi & Deccan. So lets take them one by one

2. Chennai: Will be through to the semi finals if they beat Punjab & will be out if they lose as they do need to get 14 points minimum. So a simple equation and totally in their hands. If they win , they will get to 14 points and have a NRR > current .27 which is enough and I’ll explain why.

3. Deccan vs Delhi: Whoever wins is through on points (16). The loser will only worsen their current run rate and it is below Chennai already so it doesn’t matter. So now consider the two outcomes in this clash

3(a) Deccan loses: In this case their NRR will range from –0.4 to –0.52 (ran scenarios with scores of 140-180 runs & losing by 10-40 runs. These assumptions should cover it but are not all inclusive) . This is the best news for KKR - they can win by about 10-20 runs against Mumbai & make it.

3(b) Deccan wins:  Practically curtains for KKR because Delhi’s NRR will be in the range of +0.01 to –0.1 (assuming Deccan win by 10-40 runs on scores of 140-180). My best case scenario for KKR wherein they score 180 runs & beat Mumbai by about 50 runs gives them a NRR is about –0.23.

What if KKR had scored much faster today vs Rajasthan? Well if they had done it in 13 overs (cant imagine faster) & beat Mumbai Indians next by 50 runs their NRR would still be about –0.15 (lower than the Delhi Daredevils). Of course scoring faster wouldn’t hurt (and some of my calculations are simplistic and it may get close) but i don’t think it would have made a difference. So what then of the semi-final line up and KKR chances?

For KKR to go through

1. Delhi needs to beat Deccan & Punjab needs to beat Chennai. 2. KKR needs to beat Mumbai by about 20+ runs

 

For the rest : (a) Chennai beats Punjab and they are through else out (b) Winner of Delhi vs Deccan is through (c) If Chennai lose then Delhi and Deccan can both make it through if Deccan beats Delhi or if KKR lose to Mumbai.

 

So what do i think? Delhi will beat Deccan, KKR will beat Mumbai and Chennai will lose to Punjab. 

Modi, Tharoor & now Gambhir lets it rip!!!

So its been an eventful week. Lalit Modi is becoming the new Dawood of Indian cricket. Spewing lines without a care in the world. He's taking on another irresponsible twitterrati - Shashi Tharoor.
The IPL , for all its entertainment, is taking a scary turn and i wouldnt be surprised if Modi gets cut down to size soon.

In a cricketing context , and much more justifiably, Gambhir let his words do the talking after his bat had done the scoring (and more importantly his legs had done the running without getting him out). Here's a scathing indictment of the 'top order'.

GG: "The top order should have been more responsible, it is all about finishing the job.. hope they are more responsible in the next game. We never thought of run rate etc., we were only looking at two points. NEVER told anyone in the dressing room to finish it quickly". If you listened to him live , he said a few more things which i don't remember exactly but basically along the lines of 'you cant just get by by claiming that thats the way you play".

So the question is this - Who was his ire directed at?.
1. David Warner: Maybe but he really hasnt been that comfortable against spin and didnt look like he was guilty of throwing away his wicket. Plus he's had some scores.
2. Dilshan: Well, how much can you blame a guy who deflects it on to his stumps on the 2nd ball he faces. And how much can you kick a man when he's down (for surely Dilshan cant sink any lower in this IPL)
3. Kartik: Yes, that was a silly stroke - but technically he's more middle order than top order. That leaves us with just...
4. Sehwag: Really?? Gambhir was taking on his friend, mentor, supporter (Sehwag stepped down from captaincy to allow Gambhir a chance) & India and Delhi mate?? He probably deserves it but i'd be very impressed if it was directed at Sehwag. Respect for GG grows.


What do you think?

The home stretch – Who’s going all the way now??

So a month ago when all the madness began, i had predicted the semi – finalists for IPL 2010 AS Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore and Kolkatta. So how’s that going and more importantly who do you think is going to make it to the final? At this stage its still really anybody’s game with different odds but except Punjab everyone can still make it.

1. My prediction and how it stacks:

a) Mumbai is in. At least i got one right. whew :-)

b) Bangalore: There’s a good chance that they will make it (even if they lose their last game). They could still be edged out though if they lose big to Mumbai and if Deccan beats Delhi and Punjab , Delhi beats Chennai by a big margin and Chennai beat Punjab by a big margin. But low odds of that happening & they will probably beat Mumbai to get there.

c) Delhi: Very sticky situation. Need to beat both Chennai and Deccan to be safe & that’s going to be far from easy given their recent performances. They can get by with one win though. I think if they had to beat one team they need to beat Deccan. Because even if they beat Chennai , Chennai can beat Punjab by a hefty margin and get ahead and if Deccan wins both their games it will be very close. Whereas if they beat Deccan , Deccan will need to beat Punjab by 50+ runs to oust Delhi AND KKR will need to win both their games with good margins to top Delhi. So while tomorrow’s game with Chennai is important its not as big as the one with Deccan. I’m optimistic still.

d) Kolkata: Dada’s outbursts haven’t helped the team change their trajectory. And its looking very tough. They need to beat the leader (Mumbai who will want to keep the momentum) and Rajasthan (who will want to end with some magic even if they don’t make it). And they have to win big. And they have to hope that Delhi or Chennai lose both their games AND that Deccan loses at least one game. So very tough for my dark horse but then again ‘IPL is a funny game’.

 

2. The rest of the pack:

a) Chennai will be fancying their chances. One big win and they can make it. So if they beat Delhi tomorrow they can almost feel safe. Cos then realistically only one of Delhi or Deccan will make it. And the Rajasthan v KKR game needs to have a huge margin of victory for one of those to be a contender. Great odds for them if they win tomorrow. So this is almost a quarterfinal for them while it isnt so for Delhi. 

b) Deccan: Really given where they are on the run rate , they need to win both. Simple. But of course its not. They have the firepower and dont forget they are last years winners. And Adam Gilchrist is really really due. So who knows.

c) Rajasthan: They have to Beat KKR. And Chennai (or Delhi) need to lose both their games. And Deccan needs to have at least one big loss I don’t see that happening but Shane Warne has is a poker player and he has the luck of the Irish.

d) Punjab: Well, maybe they can just seal Chennai or Deccan’s fate and try and create a new story. Or maybe set a stretch goal of getting Yuvraj to smile :-)

 

So its very close. Chennai probably have the best chance from the rest of the pack, But hard telling at this stage who will make it. Whether or not anyone does though, i think i will be making it to the IPL finals.