Its all about the bowlers

So you saw the chart i shared in my last post that showed the Mumbai Indians batting & bowling averages. I wondered if there was more to it than just the fact that Harbhajan is dominating both averages. I rifled through the other team’s performances to date and realized that its all about the bowling. Take a look.

You already saw that Mumbai Indians have 5 bowlers with an economy rate below 8.

Now lets take a look at the other consistent performer in this years league. The Royal Challengers of Bangalore. Here’s how they stack up (you can click on the chart to expand size). If you look carefully you’ll see  that they have 4 strong batsmen with a 30+ average. The rest are not as strong but frankly that’s because their top order fired so well that the others didn’t even get a chance. (Remember Kallis didn’t get out for the first 4 games). And their bowling – well 5 bowlers with an economy rate below 8 and only only 7 used (even if you count Kohli’s 2 overs).

Closer to the bottom of the table and take a look at Chennai Super Kings.They also have have 5 batsmen with 30+ averages – each having scored at least 100 runs with a very healthy strike rates (>125).  However look at the bowling. The fact that they now have 6 bowlers with a sub 8 per over average hides an important nuance. They have tried at least 12 bowlers and half of them have cost well above the 8 per over average. So a very unsettled bowling line up.

 
If i go further down to the bottom of the pool – the story is even worse. Only one Punjab Kings X1 batsman scoring at an average greater than 30, 13 bowlers tried with more than half of them leaking > 8 runs per over. So that team is really in the dumps. Nothing really working.
So Bangalore has great bowling & batting averages, Mumbai has done a great job in bowling and is heavily reliant on Tendulkar for the batting. Chennai has a positive score on batting but an unsettled look to the bowling and the Punjab da puttar’s have nothing working.

So , and my head of analytics back at work will cringe at the statistical accuracy of these conclusions,  here’s what it leads me to believe. 1. Bowling will be the key to the IPL 2010 Success: Teams need to stick to 6-8 bowlers hereonin and have at least 4 of them average below 8 runs an over. 2. Batting is necessary but not sufficient: You cant win this without at least 3-5 batsmen having an average of >30. But that's not enough (as Chennai showed).

So what does this mean for the teams.
1. My semi final predictions: Bangalore and (shockingly) Kolkata actually have a well balanced team. Its Delhi and Mumbai thats somewhat lopsided. Mumbai desperately (i think) need to find a balance that gets them at least 2 more 30+ average batsmen (drop McLaren for Duminy and maybe Nayyar or Kulkarni from last year for Satish). Delhi in contrast need to get some more bowling - maybe Nehra can do the trick but I've never figured that guy out.
2. The rest: On paper Deccan have great balance - i just dont believe in carrying so many old legs. Rajasthan also has good balance, the best captain and tons of magic. I always hope that they can make it through but despite the balance that this article recommends (and that the numbers suggest they have); they may always remain the 'almost' team as they perhaps have too many young legs. Chennai needs bowlers and by the time Bollinger comes it will be too late. Punjab - its hard to learn how to bat , bowl and field after losing 6 games; even a dimpled smile cant save them now.