So a month ago when all the madness began, i had predicted the semi – finalists for IPL 2010 AS Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore and Kolkatta. So how’s that going and more importantly who do you think is going to make it to the final? At this stage its still really anybody’s game with different odds but except Punjab everyone can still make it.
1. My prediction and how it stacks:
a) Mumbai is in. At least i got one right. whew :-)
b) Bangalore: There’s a good chance that they will make it (even if they lose their last game). They could still be edged out though if they lose big to Mumbai and if Deccan beats Delhi and Punjab , Delhi beats Chennai by a big margin and Chennai beat Punjab by a big margin. But low odds of that happening & they will probably beat Mumbai to get there.
c) Delhi: Very sticky situation. Need to beat both Chennai and Deccan to be safe & that’s going to be far from easy given their recent performances. They can get by with one win though. I think if they had to beat one team they need to beat Deccan. Because even if they beat Chennai , Chennai can beat Punjab by a hefty margin and get ahead and if Deccan wins both their games it will be very close. Whereas if they beat Deccan , Deccan will need to beat Punjab by 50+ runs to oust Delhi AND KKR will need to win both their games with good margins to top Delhi. So while tomorrow’s game with Chennai is important its not as big as the one with Deccan. I’m optimistic still.
d) Kolkata: Dada’s outbursts haven’t helped the team change their trajectory. And its looking very tough. They need to beat the leader (Mumbai who will want to keep the momentum) and Rajasthan (who will want to end with some magic even if they don’t make it). And they have to win big. And they have to hope that Delhi or Chennai lose both their games AND that Deccan loses at least one game. So very tough for my dark horse but then again ‘IPL is a funny game’.
2. The rest of the pack:
a) Chennai will be fancying their chances. One big win and they can make it. So if they beat Delhi tomorrow they can almost feel safe. Cos then realistically only one of Delhi or Deccan will make it. And the Rajasthan v KKR game needs to have a huge margin of victory for one of those to be a contender. Great odds for them if they win tomorrow. So this is almost a quarterfinal for them while it isnt so for Delhi.
b) Deccan: Really given where they are on the run rate , they need to win both. Simple. But of course its not. They have the firepower and dont forget they are last years winners. And Adam Gilchrist is really really due. So who knows.
c) Rajasthan: They have to Beat KKR. And Chennai (or Delhi) need to lose both their games. And Deccan needs to have at least one big loss I don’t see that happening but Shane Warne has is a poker player and he has the luck of the Irish.
d) Punjab: Well, maybe they can just seal Chennai or Deccan’s fate and try and create a new story. Or maybe set a stretch goal of getting Yuvraj to smile :-)
So its very close. Chennai probably have the best chance from the rest of the pack, But hard telling at this stage who will make it. Whether or not anyone does though, i think i will be making it to the IPL finals.
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