KKR - semi finals or done?

So a lot of debate around the scoring rate today after KKR perhaps took a little longer than they should have to win and ended at a NRR of

-0.456. The commentators also alluded to BRC’s losing by a big margin and how that may have been beneficial for KKR. So what’s going on and

what do KKR (and the rest) need  to do? Did slow scoring really matter? Here’s a few facts and scenarios

1. First, the result of the Mumbai Bangalore match has no bearing whatsoever on KKR. Simply put, KKR cannot hope to make up the NRR gap vs BRC (they’d need to win against Mumbai by something like 90+ runs). They need to focus on results of Chennai , Delhi & Deccan. So lets take them one by one

2. Chennai: Will be through to the semi finals if they beat Punjab & will be out if they lose as they do need to get 14 points minimum. So a simple equation and totally in their hands. If they win , they will get to 14 points and have a NRR > current .27 which is enough and I’ll explain why.

3. Deccan vs Delhi: Whoever wins is through on points (16). The loser will only worsen their current run rate and it is below Chennai already so it doesn’t matter. So now consider the two outcomes in this clash

3(a) Deccan loses: In this case their NRR will range from –0.4 to –0.52 (ran scenarios with scores of 140-180 runs & losing by 10-40 runs. These assumptions should cover it but are not all inclusive) . This is the best news for KKR - they can win by about 10-20 runs against Mumbai & make it.

3(b) Deccan wins:  Practically curtains for KKR because Delhi’s NRR will be in the range of +0.01 to –0.1 (assuming Deccan win by 10-40 runs on scores of 140-180). My best case scenario for KKR wherein they score 180 runs & beat Mumbai by about 50 runs gives them a NRR is about –0.23.

What if KKR had scored much faster today vs Rajasthan? Well if they had done it in 13 overs (cant imagine faster) & beat Mumbai Indians next by 50 runs their NRR would still be about –0.15 (lower than the Delhi Daredevils). Of course scoring faster wouldn’t hurt (and some of my calculations are simplistic and it may get close) but i don’t think it would have made a difference. So what then of the semi-final line up and KKR chances?

For KKR to go through

1. Delhi needs to beat Deccan & Punjab needs to beat Chennai. 2. KKR needs to beat Mumbai by about 20+ runs

 

For the rest : (a) Chennai beats Punjab and they are through else out (b) Winner of Delhi vs Deccan is through (c) If Chennai lose then Delhi and Deccan can both make it through if Deccan beats Delhi or if KKR lose to Mumbai.

 

So what do i think? Delhi will beat Deccan, KKR will beat Mumbai and Chennai will lose to Punjab.