So a quick post to check whether the best team will win the IPL 2010.
If you look at the points table it's very likely that the 4 semi finalists will have the following score.
1. Mumbai Indians - 20 or 22 points
2. Royal Challengers - 14 points
3. Delhi (or Deccan) - 16 points
4. Delhi, Chennai, Deccan or KKR - 14 points.
So given this , even if MI doesn't win a single game hereonin they will end the tournament with 20/22 points. Which means that if some other team wins the IPL 2010 , they will be at best having '20 points' or possibly even 18. If Deccan or Delhi win, they would have less overall points and would have lost to the Mumbai Indians twice in the league . (at least Chennai and Blore have beaten them once each).
So if Mumbai beat KKR in the last league, reach the semis where they face say Deccan or Delhi - its possible they will lose to a team that will have a total of 18 points vs 24 for Mumbai and a team that they have beaten 2/3 times in the tournament.
So does the best team really win or is it just about all on that day. Now you could argue that this is an age old debate on format and is the same for example in the ODI world cup etc . However the extensiveness of this tournament with 14 games in the league stage and each team playing every other team twice may mean that the IPL look at it differently from the ODI tournament (like some of the football leagues). However that is less exciting so maybe at least a best of 3 final instead of the sudden death. Kill the 3rd place match if needed and have the 3rd place be decided on points if time is a constraint.
I know we discussed this last year as well wrt whether the IPL format needs change but i do feel it will be a shame when Mumbai loses while having the best tournament by far. This will become even harder next year with 10 teams . Then again , maybe its like life - timing is everything and peaking too soon doesn't work (always do your best work in the quarter when your appraisal is due).
Any change in views now that we have 3 years of history?
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1 comments:
Hello,
I read your last year's post on a need to change the IPL format and after Mumbai's defeat last night, I was thinking the exact thing. The current format is extremely unfair in terms of that the deserving team might not necessarily win. And you are bang on with regard to the enormity of the league while comparing it to the World Cup.
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