KKR - semi finals or done?

So a lot of debate around the scoring rate today after KKR perhaps took a little longer than they should have to win and ended at a NRR of

-0.456. The commentators also alluded to BRC’s losing by a big margin and how that may have been beneficial for KKR. So what’s going on and

what do KKR (and the rest) need  to do? Did slow scoring really matter? Here’s a few facts and scenarios

1. First, the result of the Mumbai Bangalore match has no bearing whatsoever on KKR. Simply put, KKR cannot hope to make up the NRR gap vs BRC (they’d need to win against Mumbai by something like 90+ runs). They need to focus on results of Chennai , Delhi & Deccan. So lets take them one by one

2. Chennai: Will be through to the semi finals if they beat Punjab & will be out if they lose as they do need to get 14 points minimum. So a simple equation and totally in their hands. If they win , they will get to 14 points and have a NRR > current .27 which is enough and I’ll explain why.

3. Deccan vs Delhi: Whoever wins is through on points (16). The loser will only worsen their current run rate and it is below Chennai already so it doesn’t matter. So now consider the two outcomes in this clash

3(a) Deccan loses: In this case their NRR will range from –0.4 to –0.52 (ran scenarios with scores of 140-180 runs & losing by 10-40 runs. These assumptions should cover it but are not all inclusive) . This is the best news for KKR - they can win by about 10-20 runs against Mumbai & make it.

3(b) Deccan wins:  Practically curtains for KKR because Delhi’s NRR will be in the range of +0.01 to –0.1 (assuming Deccan win by 10-40 runs on scores of 140-180). My best case scenario for KKR wherein they score 180 runs & beat Mumbai by about 50 runs gives them a NRR is about –0.23.

What if KKR had scored much faster today vs Rajasthan? Well if they had done it in 13 overs (cant imagine faster) & beat Mumbai Indians next by 50 runs their NRR would still be about –0.15 (lower than the Delhi Daredevils). Of course scoring faster wouldn’t hurt (and some of my calculations are simplistic and it may get close) but i don’t think it would have made a difference. So what then of the semi-final line up and KKR chances?

For KKR to go through

1. Delhi needs to beat Deccan & Punjab needs to beat Chennai. 2. KKR needs to beat Mumbai by about 20+ runs

 

For the rest : (a) Chennai beats Punjab and they are through else out (b) Winner of Delhi vs Deccan is through (c) If Chennai lose then Delhi and Deccan can both make it through if Deccan beats Delhi or if KKR lose to Mumbai.

 

So what do i think? Delhi will beat Deccan, KKR will beat Mumbai and Chennai will lose to Punjab. 

Modi, Tharoor & now Gambhir lets it rip!!!

So its been an eventful week. Lalit Modi is becoming the new Dawood of Indian cricket. Spewing lines without a care in the world. He's taking on another irresponsible twitterrati - Shashi Tharoor.
The IPL , for all its entertainment, is taking a scary turn and i wouldnt be surprised if Modi gets cut down to size soon.

In a cricketing context , and much more justifiably, Gambhir let his words do the talking after his bat had done the scoring (and more importantly his legs had done the running without getting him out). Here's a scathing indictment of the 'top order'.

GG: "The top order should have been more responsible, it is all about finishing the job.. hope they are more responsible in the next game. We never thought of run rate etc., we were only looking at two points. NEVER told anyone in the dressing room to finish it quickly". If you listened to him live , he said a few more things which i don't remember exactly but basically along the lines of 'you cant just get by by claiming that thats the way you play".

So the question is this - Who was his ire directed at?.
1. David Warner: Maybe but he really hasnt been that comfortable against spin and didnt look like he was guilty of throwing away his wicket. Plus he's had some scores.
2. Dilshan: Well, how much can you blame a guy who deflects it on to his stumps on the 2nd ball he faces. And how much can you kick a man when he's down (for surely Dilshan cant sink any lower in this IPL)
3. Kartik: Yes, that was a silly stroke - but technically he's more middle order than top order. That leaves us with just...
4. Sehwag: Really?? Gambhir was taking on his friend, mentor, supporter (Sehwag stepped down from captaincy to allow Gambhir a chance) & India and Delhi mate?? He probably deserves it but i'd be very impressed if it was directed at Sehwag. Respect for GG grows.


What do you think?

The home stretch – Who’s going all the way now??

So a month ago when all the madness began, i had predicted the semi – finalists for IPL 2010 AS Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore and Kolkatta. So how’s that going and more importantly who do you think is going to make it to the final? At this stage its still really anybody’s game with different odds but except Punjab everyone can still make it.

1. My prediction and how it stacks:

a) Mumbai is in. At least i got one right. whew :-)

b) Bangalore: There’s a good chance that they will make it (even if they lose their last game). They could still be edged out though if they lose big to Mumbai and if Deccan beats Delhi and Punjab , Delhi beats Chennai by a big margin and Chennai beat Punjab by a big margin. But low odds of that happening & they will probably beat Mumbai to get there.

c) Delhi: Very sticky situation. Need to beat both Chennai and Deccan to be safe & that’s going to be far from easy given their recent performances. They can get by with one win though. I think if they had to beat one team they need to beat Deccan. Because even if they beat Chennai , Chennai can beat Punjab by a hefty margin and get ahead and if Deccan wins both their games it will be very close. Whereas if they beat Deccan , Deccan will need to beat Punjab by 50+ runs to oust Delhi AND KKR will need to win both their games with good margins to top Delhi. So while tomorrow’s game with Chennai is important its not as big as the one with Deccan. I’m optimistic still.

d) Kolkata: Dada’s outbursts haven’t helped the team change their trajectory. And its looking very tough. They need to beat the leader (Mumbai who will want to keep the momentum) and Rajasthan (who will want to end with some magic even if they don’t make it). And they have to win big. And they have to hope that Delhi or Chennai lose both their games AND that Deccan loses at least one game. So very tough for my dark horse but then again ‘IPL is a funny game’.

 

2. The rest of the pack:

a) Chennai will be fancying their chances. One big win and they can make it. So if they beat Delhi tomorrow they can almost feel safe. Cos then realistically only one of Delhi or Deccan will make it. And the Rajasthan v KKR game needs to have a huge margin of victory for one of those to be a contender. Great odds for them if they win tomorrow. So this is almost a quarterfinal for them while it isnt so for Delhi. 

b) Deccan: Really given where they are on the run rate , they need to win both. Simple. But of course its not. They have the firepower and dont forget they are last years winners. And Adam Gilchrist is really really due. So who knows.

c) Rajasthan: They have to Beat KKR. And Chennai (or Delhi) need to lose both their games. And Deccan needs to have at least one big loss I don’t see that happening but Shane Warne has is a poker player and he has the luck of the Irish.

d) Punjab: Well, maybe they can just seal Chennai or Deccan’s fate and try and create a new story. Or maybe set a stretch goal of getting Yuvraj to smile :-)

 

So its very close. Chennai probably have the best chance from the rest of the pack, But hard telling at this stage who will make it. Whether or not anyone does though, i think i will be making it to the IPL finals.

Dire straits – facing the music

I just got home from watching Mark Knopfler play at the Paramount theatre in Oakland. Wonderful performance , great talent and excellent instrument players – but somehow didn’t fully feel like Dire Straits. Because its not the old team with the full on magic (he didn’t play Money for Nothing, Walk of Life though he did end with Sultans of Swing).

Somewhat relatedly, most of the IPL teams are in Dire Straits and one of the reasons is that they are still struggling to get the ‘right team’ and the magic. And also because the Sultans of swing havent really fired consistently (Think Brett Lee, Bond, Steyn, Balaji, Dwayne Smith, Nehra/Nannes(injury), Tait, Munaf). The only team where they have is in the semis (Zak, Malinga).
But more on that later, for now the team composition.
Its a shame that after 12 games the teams haven’t figured out what their best combination is and are still somewhat guessing. I’ll focus on the batting in this post but i think the struggle is true in bowling as well as in the foreign player quota. The teams just havent got it right and 12 games later it might be too late.
Batting: Some of the key teams with challenges

a. Even Mumbai is not fully sure of their lineup (Jayasuriya, Rayadu, Dhawan opening?) – luckily they at least have got Duminy a confirmed spot now.

b. Delhi is under pressure & may make some wild changes at the last minute (Dilshan?) and will make the semi finals (if that) with an unsettled team

c. Kolkata: McCullum hasnt fired, Hodge has been in the wings for ever, Tiwary’s position in lineup is fluctuating & David Hussey hasnt made an impact while Matthew’s can claim some success – so more experimentation on the cards i think in the last 2 games.

d. Chennai are probably closest to getting it right (Vijay and Raina in form, Dhoni and Hayden with the fear factor and Badrinath/Albie to provide some tail end relief) . Deccan seem to be getting there but not before they made a mess of Laxman’s image & Gilchrist really needs to fire. Good news is though that they  know the role for Symonds, Sharma and Suman. Punjab are  probably started getting it right with Jayawardene at the top but doesn’t really matter. Neither does the Royals because Warne mixes it up all the time anyway.

e. The biggest headache is for Bangalore and its a problem of plenty. Kallis, Dravid, Uthapa, Kohli, Taylor, KP, White, Pandey?? To me its been clear – open with Uthapa or Taylor & use Dravid as the floater to come in when Kallis falls & Kohli when Dravid falls. That way you always have a steady stream of stability and creativity through the innings. I am neutral to KP or White but still think they should have tried Roelof (but its too late now). Kumble may be forced to remove Kallis – bad move.

Any team that doesn’t enter the semis with a settled look of ‘team magic’ will find themselves in Dire straits & will certainly realize that (Prize) Money for nothing is not part of their Walk of Life.

Some email banter – Blore and Mumbai teams…

Here’s an email exchange from a couple of days ago between Aloke and me on the team selection. Read bottom up. By the time you read this Blore has lost their game chasing a 150ish total. Kallis will take flak for his scoring rate but i still think its the first game where he’s really flopped. The role and strategy that i called out below (and earlier) is more critical. Kumble may even drop Kallis for the Rajasthan game and we’ll see how that goes tomorrow…

From: To: Aloke C Gupte
Subject: Not sure why

Clogs the top order...I would try rayudu for a couple of games and see how it goes ...there are enough batsmen (sachin won't listen though :( )

---

From: Thakar, Gautam
To: Aloke C Gupte
Sent: Tue Apr 13 00:37:07 2010
Subject: RE: Not sure why

Yep – been screaming for JP for a while and for Satish’s head. No Dhawan though?

From: Aloke C Gupte
Sent: Monday, April 12, 2010 9:33 AM
To: Thakar, Gautam
Subject: Re: Not sure why

Not to mention Nayar for Sathish (who adds no value, almost). Atleast JP is playing. Jayasuriya was a one-off...he didn't know who to pick as the 4th player...I think MI will be a lot better with this order:
- sachin, rayudu, jp, tiwary, pollard, bravo, nayar, bhajan, zak, malinga, whoever
Batting
- give rayudu a chance..I think he has what it takes
- jp to bat 1 down is perfect, the only other 'class' batsman we have
- tiwary will be better off following him then rayudu
- pollard and bravo to provide ballast next
- nayar and bhajan to boost lower order
Bowling
- malinga, zak, bhajan: all good
- bravo, pollard, nayar in support
- jp providing a spin option
- I would therefore pick no 11 as another spinner
More on bangalore later.

---

From: To: Aloke C Gupte
Sent: Tue Apr 13 00:25:23 2010
Subject: Not sure why

Kumble and Tendulkar obstinately ignore my free advice on Jayasurya and Pandey???? J

Also, looks like Kumbles is betting on a ‘wickets in hand’ strategy with the Kallis, Dravid playing in tandem & backing Taylor, Uthappa, Kohli and White to get anything in the end. Works better when it’s a 150 chase but hopefully he changes when faced with more imposing numbers….

IPL’s best batsman and bowler – Aloke’s weekly round up April 12

Writing in from Singapore today - had to keep a short meeting schedule to get this entry in (of course it was also to watch the Indians v Daredevils game at that fabulous little ground, Brabourne). Another superb week of cricket provided by the IPL - I've heard all the stories about the commercialization of the game by the IPL...but cant understand whats wrong in getting to see the world's top cricketers play hard, intense and committed cricket??

Batting

This week saw the Orange cap change hands, before last week's leader took it back to head the list for the 4th consecutive time. However, the manner in which Kallis regained the cap was almost bewildering to watch - 27 off 37 last night. I spoke about the Kallis conundrum and now it seems it is dawning on his captain (see cricinfo) as Bangalore are teetering a bit at a decisive stage.

As i speak the Maestro has taken it back once again...but that is for next week.
This is how they stacked up last week: Kallis, Sachin, Ojha, Vijay, Yusuf, Dada, Hayden, Sehwag, Rohit, S Tiwary
Runs
#1 Kallis 528
#2 Sachin 512
#3 Dada 366

#4 N Ojha 352
#5 Symonds 346
#6 Vijay 337
#7 Jayawardene 325
#8 Sehwag 324
#9 Rohit Sharma 323
#10 Raina 322

The movers this week were unsurprisingly batsmen (Symonds & Jayawardene) who led a resurgence for their respective teams - the teams of the week really, the Deccan Chargers and Kings XI, who have now won 3 in a row. It is too late for the Kings, but the Deccan surge is happening at the right time and the league is headed for a fantastic finale next week!

My thoughts on the week -
1. The Symonds Charge. Andrew Symonds came to the party (critically) for Deccan (alongside Suman). Deccan are putting together an impressive late run that could yet make the semis. If they do, they may be hard to stop (Chennai found that year after being decimated by Gilchrist in the semi). His could be a top 10 position that makes a material difference - we shall see.

2. An honourable mention. Robin Uthappa is ranked #11 on runs and #1 on strike rates. He has played a strong hand in the IPL so far and to grab the no 4 slot and be informally appointed 'destroyer in chief' in a team that also has Taylor, KP, the current purple cap holder, White and the young Virat Kohli is a job well done! Many would have written Robin off amongst this lot. To add to that he is joint 1st with Yusuf on sixes! A world T20 spot, anyone??

3. The Big Fight. The league is wide open (some clarity may emerge by tonight or it might get murkier). The individual batting stakes mirror the league with 4 runs between #7 and #10. #4 - #6 are also very close. Over the next 10 days, some fortunes will certainly dip and others will soar.

Who will be next week's Vijay or Symonds, and surge through the ranks??

For the strike rate hungry (batsmen >180 runs): #1 Uthappa (takes it from Gilchrist, deservedly), #2 Yusuf, #3 Gilchrist, #4 Sehwag #5 Vijay (the top 5 remain unchanged and Uthappa, Yusuf and Vijay have made a difference to their sides unlike Gilchrist and Sehwag so far), #6 Gayle #7 Rayudu #8 Kohli #9 I Pathan and #10 Lumb. The Gayle force makes his first appearance and i think is a good punt for the amongst top 10 amongst run scorers next week. Sachin is now 17th in this list and Kallis 28th.

Batsman of the IPL (so far): Sachin Tendulkar (Now i really wanted to do that!)

Bowling
The battle of the spinners continues - and finally Piyush Chawla announced himself. There is also something in the wicket taking knack of Vinay Kumar, though he doesnt look it and is very expensive. This is how last week looked:
Wickets: Mishra, Ojha, Murli, Malinga, Zaheer, Bhajan, Vinay, Warne, Tait, RP
Eco rate: Kumble, Nannes, Kartik, Malinga, Murli, Vaas, Yuvi, Bhajan, Mishra, Trivedi
Pragyan Ojha took the Purple cap this week and is the other reason in the sharp revival of Deccan's fortunes.
Wickets
#1 Ojha 18 (7.66)

#2 Mishra 15 (6.97)
#3 Vinay 15 (8.31)

#4 Irfan 14 (8.74)

#5 Zaheer 13 (7.42)
#6 Malinga 11 (6.62)

#7 Murli 12 (6.91)

#8 Bhajji 12 (6.69)
#9 RP Singh 12 (8.41)
#10 Kumble (6.16)
Interesting that Indians take the top 5 slots. This is partly because the overseas players dont always play - Nannes, Vaas, Harris all havent played all through the tournament, and even poor Murli lost his place ranked 3rd! On a positive note, the never flagging Anil Kumble makes an appearance in the top 10 - he has bowled well (as the list below will depict adequately!)

Eco Rates
#1 Kumble 6.16 (12)
#2 Nannes 6.51 (6)
#3 Kartik 6.51 (6)
#4 Bhajji 6.69 (12)
#5 Yusuf 6.90 (5)
#6 Murli 6.91 (12)
#7 Ashwin 6.96 (7)

#8 Malinga 7.00 (13)

#9 Trivedi 7.10 (9)

#10 Mishra 7.15 (15)
Anil Kumble retains his spot, as do #2 & #3 Nannes and Kartik, without playing at all! Highlights what i mentioned last week on the joys of not playing ;). Not many changes in this list, except Ashwin of Chennai (who just about met my no of overs bowled criteria).
Observations:
1. Its funny. i commented last week on both Warne and Yuvraj ("The Legend & The Brat"). The former had slipped in on the wickets list, the latter on eco rates. They are both out this week underlying the old 'funny' game moniker. Lets see what happens next week 
2. Spinners, Pacers. Its interesting to see the spinners dominate the economy rates (7/10). On the wickets front they slip to 5/10 which is also very creditable. The pacers are affected by bowling upfront and at the death (a good case can be made for spinners having bowled better upfront). Despite the statistics - the fact simply is that some of the bowlers have done really well and bowled some super spells (i enjoyed Zaheer bowling to the Royals and then Steyn against Deccan tremendously).
Bowler of the week (so far): Pragyan Ojha. Lifted his team's fortunes, bowling beautifully, if he keeps it up for another week, Deccan will make the semis.

till next week...

Leaving Las Vegas

Haven't been able to write for the last few days as i was in Vegas. And between shows (O), concerts (AC DC), the strip and gambling; it was a tough trade off :-) . But its been an interesting weekend of results with some good 'gambles' paying off  and some not ( Jayawardene & Jayasurya opening) almost like my performance at the roulette tables :-(. But an interesting week nonetheless - with Punjab's giant killing behaviour now opening up the league.
My backing the old warhorse Gilchrist has been a spectacular flop. His duck today against the BRC's might just have snuffed his team's hopes as i type and certainly snuffed out my prediction of his making the top 10 as also any hope for my fantasy league team.

On the topic of the Top 10, will wait for Aloke's weekly roundup contribution but my dark horse Jayawardene made the list i think as did Shane Warne (though in a joint tenth)

This week though KKR will need to 'gamble' hard if they are to make it (drop Ishant and Bond and back the batting) but let's see how that goes. I'm back and will cover the remainder of the IPL as we go to the 'home stretch' ...