Well , i got almost all my predictions wrong yesterday (and i say almost only ‘cos the KKR v MI match is not yet done and i could end up being fully wrong).
Chennai beat Punjab in a masterclass by Dhoni – but it really could have gone either way. Guess that ends Irfan’s comeback hopes as the India skipper will not have much faith. Perhaps he and Yusuf (who is now on thin ice i think if he flops a couple more times) can practice in their backyard to get back into form. In any case it was close and Punjab batted well so i don’t feel so bad about the prediction.
However, i was very sure that DD will come together to beat Deccan easily – with the top order firing hard. Well that wasn’t to be as they all crumbled. In fact, Nehra played the scoop shot (of sorts) better than Dilshan (who is the leading contender for the worst performer of IPL 3) has in the whole tournament. And as i mentioned to Aloke earlier in the day, perhaps Gambhir should have given Sehwag this advice – “pretend it’s a Test match”
Well in any case Deccan it is. Despite Gilchrist not performing (maybe a singled handed win in one of the next 2 games is on the cards ?) the team really brought it home. The low total was something that Delhi should really have got but then as Symonds said in the break - ‘ well its not a high score but we have the runs on the board and they still need to get them”. The unfathomable decision to not play Vaas in the last few games was brought to the fore with his super performance today (he still has the best economy rate in the team) and Rohit Sharma took some stunning catches. But really the three musketeers of Symonds , Suman and Sharma with a more than able D’Artagnan in Ojha have been key to their revival. With Vaas back, Harmeet delivering in crunch moments and the skipper due for a score they might just go all the way. Its a reasonable mix of experience and youth as Aneesh Vijaykar pointed out and boast the best bowler of the tournament (and 3 others with a average of less than 7.5) and a batting line up that is sharing the load equally. Somehow i just didn’t believe the old legs had it in them (and perhaps still dont) – then again, maybe i shouldn’t have been so skeptical.
They are after all the defending champs.
ps: Interesting data.
KKR vs Mumbai. A bit of a ‘who cares’ . A rudimentary excel table revealed that KKR breaks even at about 150 runs. ie i think if they score 150 runs they need needs to win by about 150 runs. If they score less than 150 it doesn’t matter. If they are chasing a score of about 150 they need to win by about 17 overs. I may be off by a few overs or runs but you get the idea – should be a fun match.
May the best team win IPL 2010 - really?
So a quick post to check whether the best team will win the IPL 2010.
If you look at the points table it's very likely that the 4 semi finalists will have the following score.
1. Mumbai Indians - 20 or 22 points
2. Royal Challengers - 14 points
3. Delhi (or Deccan) - 16 points
4. Delhi, Chennai, Deccan or KKR - 14 points.
So given this , even if MI doesn't win a single game hereonin they will end the tournament with 20/22 points. Which means that if some other team wins the IPL 2010 , they will be at best having '20 points' or possibly even 18. If Deccan or Delhi win, they would have less overall points and would have lost to the Mumbai Indians twice in the league . (at least Chennai and Blore have beaten them once each).
So if Mumbai beat KKR in the last league, reach the semis where they face say Deccan or Delhi - its possible they will lose to a team that will have a total of 18 points vs 24 for Mumbai and a team that they have beaten 2/3 times in the tournament.
So does the best team really win or is it just about all on that day. Now you could argue that this is an age old debate on format and is the same for example in the ODI world cup etc . However the extensiveness of this tournament with 14 games in the league stage and each team playing every other team twice may mean that the IPL look at it differently from the ODI tournament (like some of the football leagues). However that is less exciting so maybe at least a best of 3 final instead of the sudden death. Kill the 3rd place match if needed and have the 3rd place be decided on points if time is a constraint.
I know we discussed this last year as well wrt whether the IPL format needs change but i do feel it will be a shame when Mumbai loses while having the best tournament by far. This will become even harder next year with 10 teams . Then again , maybe its like life - timing is everything and peaking too soon doesn't work (always do your best work in the quarter when your appraisal is due).
Any change in views now that we have 3 years of history?
If you look at the points table it's very likely that the 4 semi finalists will have the following score.
1. Mumbai Indians - 20 or 22 points
2. Royal Challengers - 14 points
3. Delhi (or Deccan) - 16 points
4. Delhi, Chennai, Deccan or KKR - 14 points.
So given this , even if MI doesn't win a single game hereonin they will end the tournament with 20/22 points. Which means that if some other team wins the IPL 2010 , they will be at best having '20 points' or possibly even 18. If Deccan or Delhi win, they would have less overall points and would have lost to the Mumbai Indians twice in the league . (at least Chennai and Blore have beaten them once each).
So if Mumbai beat KKR in the last league, reach the semis where they face say Deccan or Delhi - its possible they will lose to a team that will have a total of 18 points vs 24 for Mumbai and a team that they have beaten 2/3 times in the tournament.
So does the best team really win or is it just about all on that day. Now you could argue that this is an age old debate on format and is the same for example in the ODI world cup etc . However the extensiveness of this tournament with 14 games in the league stage and each team playing every other team twice may mean that the IPL look at it differently from the ODI tournament (like some of the football leagues). However that is less exciting so maybe at least a best of 3 final instead of the sudden death. Kill the 3rd place match if needed and have the 3rd place be decided on points if time is a constraint.
I know we discussed this last year as well wrt whether the IPL format needs change but i do feel it will be a shame when Mumbai loses while having the best tournament by far. This will become even harder next year with 10 teams . Then again , maybe its like life - timing is everything and peaking too soon doesn't work (always do your best work in the quarter when your appraisal is due).
Any change in views now that we have 3 years of history?
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